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Market Commentary | December 2019

Rob Kellogg, CFA® • Jan 15, 2020

THE MARKET AND ECONOMY

The market continued to exceed expectations in 2019 as the S&P 500 Index had its best performing year since 2013. The S&P Total Return Index (S&P TR) closed the year up 31.49% due to a 3.02% increase in the month of December.1 Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the NASDAQ ended the decade just as strong. The DJIA finished 2019 up 22.34% with a 1.74% increase in December, and the NASDAQ ended the year up 35.23% after a strong 3.54% increase in December.2 Continuing with good performance reviews, core fixed income ended the year in positive territory as well. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Total Return Index finished the year up 8.72%. This was in sharp contrast to 2019 when core fixed income was almost perfectly flat with a return of 0.01% while S&P TR was down 4.38%.3
Dovish shifts in central banks’ policies combined with a strong U.S. economy allowed both stocks and bonds to perform well. The dovish shifts, think lower interest rates, have a lot of investors chasing yield, and we are getting quite a few questions on high yield strategies. To be clear, high yield strategies do have a place in many portfolios for a certain allocation. What the average investor doesn’t realize, is that “high yield” strategies, or riskier bonds, do have a positive correlation to the equity market. When the equity market goes down, many high yield vehicles will follow. These high yield strategies are less vulnerable to interest rate shifts but are more reliant on the strength of the issuing company (credit risk). With 2019 being a great year for equities and some volatility expected in 2020, it is wise to be aware of the fixed income vehicles you are using to seek yield. High yield vehicles will still be exposed to credit risk and could have equity-like volatility. Continue to discuss your overall investment strategy with a financial professional and if income is your goal, be sure to explore all options and not just pick the vehicle with the most attractive yield. 

CURRENT EVENTS UPDATE

Brexit

The United Kingdom’s general election occurred on Thursday, December 12th. Having failed to obtain a majority in the 2017 general election, the Conservative party won by a landslide to earn its largest majority since Margaret Thatcher won a third term in 1987. The party finished with 365 seats out of the 650 available. Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that they will get Brexit done by January 31st. Jeremy Corbyn said that he would not lead the Labour party into another election, and Jo Swinson has said that she will step down as the Liberal Democrat leader.5 The country is all set to leave the European Union next month and then they will enter a transition period. This transition period can be extended at the end of June if need be, and a trade deal is hoped to be agreed upon and ratified by the end of 2021 or they may officially exit in 2021 without a trade deal in place.6

At the moment, the United Kingdom (UK) trades with the rest of the world as a member of the European Union (EU). If an agreement is not reached, the UK will go from trading with EU rules to trading with WTO (World Trade Organization) rules. Pro-Brexit economists believe that most trade has been done on WTO terms already, but many others believe that the UK will have to make adjustments if an agreement is not reached. If a deal is not reached, around 40 different trading agreements between the EU and other countries will no longer apply to the UK.7 While the odds of this happening are slim now that the Conservative party has their majority, it’s still a possibility to ponder.

US/China Trade War and the US Trade Deficit

The trade war has the United States on the verge of its first annual decline in trade deficit since 2013. The trade deficit fell 8.2% in November down to $43.1 billion which is its lowest mark since October of 2016. While U.S. oil exports have aided in the cause, it is mainly due to the decrease in imports of Chinese goods from tariffs. Even as the gap with China has shrunk, it has widened with a few other countries such as Mexico and Taiwan.9 The overall deficit isn’t likely to go away anytime soon, but the decrease is still a positive.

United States President Donald Trump has announced that he will sign the long-awaited “phase one” portion of the trade deal on January 15th this year. He said that it will be signed in Washington with “high level representatives” from China in attendance. He also stated that he will be traveling to Beijing at a later date to discuss “phase two” and that he is calling off plans for tariff increases due to the progress made between the two countries.10 The two countries seem determined to end the dispute, but experts say that the most contentious issues will be harder to resolve and that the trade war may drag on for months, if not years.

CONCLUSION

As we open the year, there are some things that we will want to keep an eye one. The election will gradually gain more traction throughout 2020 as investors will closely watch to see who will control the presidency and the Senate in 2021 and beyond. Presidential and Congressional candidates all have a wide range of tax and fiscal views that could potentially hurt the outlook for many corporations. Unemployment has remained low and economic growth has continued to be just strong enough. Investors will also be watching the growing tensions between the United States and Iran, along with the continued progress of the U.S./China trade war. Overall, the outlook of the U.S. economy remains healthy, but the chances of a 2019 repeat performance are slim.

With 2019 being one of the least volatile years for the market in the last decade, there are some expectations of market volatility due to the events mentioned above. Having a financial plan and an appropriately diversified portfolio are key first steps for weathering any market environment. Furthermore, with recent regulatory changes, effective January 1, 2020, the Secure Act may have materially impacted previously created retirement income and legacy strategies.12 Regardless of whether you have questions on your current investment strategy, want to discuss material financial changes in your life that have recently occurred, or want to review your previously created financial plan to ensure it still aligns with your financial objectives, do not hesitate to schedule a conversation today.
Source (4) – FactSet. Data as of market close on 12/31/2019. S&P Returns are without dividend reinvestments
Source (8)
US Trade Deficit in Billions
Source (11)

"Overall, the outlook of the U.S. economy remains healthy, but the chances of a 2019 repeat performance are slim."

03 Dec, 2021
November was a dizzying month for investors. The highlight? Earnings. 82% of companies1 beat estimates this quarter, despite headwinds such as supply chain constraints and inflation. The market’s biggest muse? Elon Musk’s twitter handle, with tweets such as (paraphrased) “should I sell 10% of my Tesla stock?” The most exciting job? Fed watcher. We started tapering, saw a plethora of hot inflation data, and gleaned insight from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the last day of the month. November 2021 Market Returns 
03 Dec, 2021
October was another positive month for the markets after September’s pullback. So far in 2021, the S&P 500 had nine positive performing months, September being the only hold out. The index ended up 6.9%, even though the first week of the month started a bit volatile. However, 2021 is looking robust, even if November and December aren’t large contributors, as the YTD performance through October is 23.9%. 1
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 07 Oct, 2021
September ended the streak of seven positive months in a row for the S&P 500 as it was the first negative month for the index since January of this year. The index ended the month down 4.76%, but it is still up nearly 15% on the year. That is the worst monthly decline for the index since March of 2020 when it fell 12.51%. 1
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 07 Sep, 2021
August was one of the year’s best months for the investors as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the NASDAQ Composite each hit new all-time highs. It is the seventh straight month of increases for the S&P 500 as it finished the month up 2.90%, and the index is now up 20.41% for the year. 1 Coming in alongside market highs was earnings growth as 98% of companies in the S&P 500 have now reported for the second quarter. Earnings were expected to be higher this year relative to the lower levels caused by the virus in 2020 as estimates for second quarter earnings growth came in at 63%. However, with almost all companies having reported, earnings growth significantly outperformed expectations as it came in at 89% helping the market reach new highs. 2
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 05 Aug, 2021
The S&P 500 continued to climb for the fifth straight month as the index hit a new all-time high on July 29 th . 1 The index finished the month up 2.27% and is now up 17.02% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the NASDAQ Composite both increased during the month as well finishing up 1.26% and 1.20% respectively. Both indices are now comfortably in double digit returns for the year. Small cap stocks took a significant hit as the Russell 2000 fell 3.65% during the month, but it is still up 12.73% on the year. As investors move some of their equity gains into fixed income and the Fed continues with their asset purchases, bond demand has increased leading to a return of 1.12% for the U.S. Agg in the month of July. It is now down just 0.50% on the year. 2
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 05 Jun, 2021
The S&P 500 Index continues to climb in June as it finished the month up 2.22% leading to a 14.41% increase on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ led the way during the second quarter as it was up 9.50% on the quarter following a strong June, and it is now up 12.50% on the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) did not follow suit during the month of June as it was down 0.08%, but the index is still up nearly 13% on the year. 1
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 07 May, 2021
Equities fell on the last trading day of April as investors likely took their share of profits after positive news regarding corporate earnings and economic data. However, the major U.S. indices still finished in positive territory for the third straight month as the S&P 500 has hit 25 record highs thus far in 2021. 1
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 05 May, 2021
The markets started off strong in May before running into inflation fears towards the middle of the month. After those fears were somewhat curbed by the Fed, markets rallied to end the month. The S&P 500 index is up nearly 12% on the year after it finished the month of May up 0.55%. This is the fourth positive month in a row for the index after it finished down just over 1% in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished the month up nearly 2% and is now up 12.82% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ did not fair as well during the month as it declined 1.53% and is now up 6.68% on the year. Small cap stocks were relatively flat for the month as the Russell 2000 finished up 0.11%. The MSCI EAFE and EM indices both finished in positive territory as well. 1 As we enter the summer months, June has traditionally been a weak month for markets as the DJIA is averaging 0.12% over the last 50 years, and it is down an average of 0.7% over the last 20 years. However, July and August are traditionally good months for the index as it averages an increase of 3% over its 125-year history. 2
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 08 Apr, 2021
After a volatile month, the S&P 500 finished at a record high when the markets closed on March 31 st . The index finished the month up 4.24% and is now up 5.77% on the year. As the economic recovery continues, the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the monthly performance numbers as it finished up 6.62% and is now up 7.76% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ finished the month in positive territory, but it continues to lag the other two indices after outperforming both in 2020. The index finished the month up 0.41% and is now up 2.78% on the year. Small cap stocks continued to inch higher as the Russell 2000 ended the month up 0.88% and is now up 12.44% on the year. The MSCI EAFE index is up just under 3% on the year after a positive month, however the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell 1.70% during the month and is now up 1.95% on the year. The Bloomberg Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate Bond index fell 1.25% in March and is now down 3.37% on the year. 1
By Rob Kellogg, CFA® 09 Mar, 2021
Equity markets were modestly higher in the month of February after January saw both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in negative territory.
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